Traffic & Revenue Studies

Managed lanes, toll raods, pricing strategies, growth models

Traffic and revenue (T&R) forecasting underpins the financial viability of toll roads, managed lanes and major transport infrastructure. It requires a careful balance of behavioural modelling, economic analysis and commercial insight. With more than two decades of experience in investment-grade forecasting worldwide, Amodellis provides robust, defensible and transparent T&R analysis for public authorities, private investors and lenders.

I combine traditional transport modelling approaches with behavioural research, discrete choice modelling, elasticity analysis and modern data sources (e.g. GPS, mobile-device datasets, observed pricing data) to deliver forecasts that are both technically sound and commercially relevant.

Services Offered

Investment-Grade T&R Forecasting

Comprehensive modelling and analysis to support:

  • Toll road and managed lane design
  • Financing, refinancing and asset sales
  • Investor due diligence
  • Concession strategy and procurement
  • Business case development
Behavioural & Elasticity Analysis

Incorporating:

  • Price and toll sensitivity analysis
  • Market segmentation and choice modelling
  • Diversion and mode-shift estimation
  • Valuation of travel time savings and reliability
  • Revenue robustness and scenario testing
Commercial & Strategic Advisory

Support for:

  • Pricing strategy and toll policy
  • Demand-risk assessment
  • Revenue optimisation
  • Long-term traffic growth and land-use forecasts
  • Commercial negotiations and technical reviews
Model Development & Integration

Using tools and data such as:

  • PTV Visum and OpenPath Emme toll assignment models
  • Spreadsheet-based revenue models
  • GPS/mobile location datasets (e.g. StreetLight, Replica)
  • Discrete choice and stated-preference models
  • Sensitivity, uncertainty and stress testing

Recent Experience

Managed Lane Forecasting - Nashville and Atlanta

Recently produced investment-grade forecasts for two major managed lane systems in the United States. Work included model development, growth and market share estimation, elasticity analysis, demand-risk assessment and revenue projections, using network models and large-scale mobility datasets.

Pricing & Revenue Strategy Review - M6toll

Updated traffic and revenue forecasts using latest transaction data, socio-economic indicators and macroeconomic assumptions. Assessed the impact of new pricing structures (account vs non-account, zonal charging, removal of time-of-day pricing) and produced revised revenue forecasts to support budgeting and strategy development.

Investment-Grade T&R Forecasting - Denver

Produced investment-grade T&R forecasts for a major US toll road transaction, including behavioural survey design, market share model devleopment, network forecasting and detailed scenario and risk testing for investor review.